Tens of thousands of Ukrainians are expected to arrive in Canada before the end of March

Tens of thousands of Ukrainians are expected to arrive in Canada within the next few months before emergency visas are set to expire at the end of March, but is this sustainable?

Mariia Rudanets arrived in Winnipeg from Ukraine a couple of weeks ago – and although she is going back to Ukraine to finish her master’s degree, she will be moving full-time to Winnipeg in the fall.

“The living here is very calm, comparable to Ukraine, especially. I can have my future here,” said Rudanets.

Even though she is excited to move to Canada, she says it doesn’t take away from the fact that she is leaving everyone and everything she knows behind.

“Every time, it’s very hard for your mental health, for your feelings as well, but especially when your family and friends are in danger every single day. It’s really hard to realize it and understand it as well.”

Ottawa has issued over 936,000 temporary emergency visas since March 2022 for Ukrainians fleeing the war. A total of 210,178 people have actually arrived in Canada – these are numbers from the latest data issued on November 28.

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Canada extends emergency visa applications for Ukrainians fleeing war until July

So far, more than 190,000 Ukrainians and their family members have come to Canada under the emergency visa program as of March 19. 

But now, according to Operation Ukrainian Safe Haven’s latest pre-arrival in Canada survey, approximately 70,000-90,000 Ukrainians are expected to arrive in Canada before the visa expiration date of March 31, 2024.

“It’s a definite significant increase in this quarter. We have seen larger surges in the past, but this is significantly more than we have seen in the last six months over a short period of time,” said Sarosh Rizvi, the Co-Chair of Operation Ukrainian Safe Haven.

The survey, based on pre-arrival surveys and trends, estimates that over 7 per cent of the respondents indicate Manitoba as their preferred province.

“People are wanting a safe haven still. The war is not stopping, and it looks like 2024 will actually be quite dire for a lot of the part of the country in Ukraine that is under constant bombardment, daily missile attacks, drone attacks and we have seen in the last few weeks, the largest attacks since the full-scale invasion began.” explained Nick Krawetz, a volunteer supporting Ukrainian refugees in Manitoba.

To date, over 23,000 Ukrainians have arrived in Manitoba. Emily Halldorson, the Ukraine response coordinator at Manitoba Association of Newcomer Serving Organizations, or MANSO, doesn’t believe the number of people coming to Canada will be as high as indicated in the survey. She says data has been a challenge throughout the entire CUAET program.

“I think we will see an increase before that deadline, but I don’t think it is going to be as high as some sources have suggested it is,” said Halldorson.