What to expect from Canada’s 2023 World Cup opener vs. Nigeria

The Canadian women’s national team will kick off its 2023 World Cup campaign on Thursday evening (Canadian time) in what should be an intriguing opener against Nigeria.

Both sides drew 2-2 in a friendly last April, albeit with Canada missing a couple of key players. Regardless, a precedent has been set. Les Rouges won’t be able to take their feet off the gas in any of their three Group B matches, which makes an early win even more crucial.

Here’s what we can expect out of both teams from a tactical perspective on Thursday starting at 7:30 p.m. PT.

THE HIGH PRESS

One of Nigeria’s fascinating tactical quirks is its pressing intensity. Over the last calendar year against World Cup-bound opponents, the Nigerians are averaging 8.48 passes per defensive action (PPDA). That includes matches against the United States, Japan, New Zealand, Costa Rica and Colombia, all higher-ranked sides.

The output has slightly fluctuated based on Nigeria’s opponents, but the tactic remains the same: press opponents aggressively in the attacking third.

That trend goes as far back as the April 2022 friendly against Canada in Langford, B.C. Three of Nigeria’s seven shots were produced off Canadian losses in possession, a couple of which were forced by the high press or via second balls.

Both goals were scored off broken plays or set pieces and the pitch at Starlight Stadium in Langford is narrow, which benefits a high press. However, this is a staple of Nigeria’s tactical principles as they’ve still produced quality chances via high recoveries in recent games.

All the more reason why this is one of the keys to the match.

WIDTH

While Nigeria is predominantly right-side heavy in attack, Canada is just as reliant on the wide areas against more elite competition and opponents usually gift them those opportunities.

More often than not, Canada tends to bypass an opponent’s high press by playing direct over the line of engagement, winning the second ball, then playing the ball into vacated space by the opposition’s winger.

The moves are usually capped off by back-post crosses. In fact, the majority of Canada’s crosses in recent matchups vs. World Cup-bound teams are almost exclusively in that area.

All the more reason to start Jordyn Huitema up front. She’s received more crosses (13) in Canada’s last nine games against World Cup participants than any other player, producing two shots and 0.39 expected goals (xG) from those chances.

THE BACK POST

Those back-post crosses for Canada may come in handy on set pieces. Nigeria tends to overload one post on corners with at least three players, while one defends the other post.

This wasn’t exclusive to the April 2022 friendly, either. Nigeria also did this in recent friendlies against the United States.

In this particular instance, there are five players in the six-yard box, but that’s due to the two Americans occupying that space. Otherwise, there’d likely be the usual three. Regardless, there’s still a clear route to the back post.

Canada produced three shots from seven corners against Nigeria in Langford, so the formula is there. Now it’s just down to execution on Thursday night.