71% of Manitobans want Harris to defeat Trump in U.S. election: poll
Posted November 5, 2024 11:43 am.
Last Updated November 5, 2024 7:25 pm.
History is about to be made and most Manitobans say they would cast their ballot in favour of Vice President Kamala Harris if they were able to vote in the U.S. election.
Millions of American voters are exercising their democratic right today and new data from Probe Research found the majority of Manitobans — 71 per cent of those surveyed — would be voting for Harris as opposed to former President Donald Trump.
While 24 per cent would cast a ballot for Trump. Four per cent said they would vote for a third-party candidate.
Eleven per cent of those surveyed said they were undecided.
Women, older adults and Winnipeggers are strong Harris supporters, according to the poll, while Trump has a higher level of support among men, adults under 55 and new Canadians.
Probe Research also found supporters of the Manitoba NDP are much more likely (88 per cent) to want Harris to win. Fifty-one per cent of Progressive Conservatives supporters are rooting for Trump.
What Manitobans want and what they expect will happen doesn’t quite match – 43 per cent think Harris will become the next U.S. president; 27 per cent say it will be Trump; and 29 per cent are unsure.
Meanwhile 73 per cent of those polled believe a Trump victory would have a “very negative effect” on Canada, while 31 per cent said the same of a Harris win.
CityNews hit the streets of Winnipeg to find out how some in the city are feeling, with one person saying they’re “quite anxious” saying they think the election is a “massive turning point in history.”
Another said they’re worried about what happens, for the U.S., Canada and the World, if Trump becomes president again, while one person we spoke to said outright they’d put their support behind Trump if they were voting today.
Curtis Brown, principal researcher at Probe, said the former commander chief still commands some popularity, as while the majority of Manitobans would support Harris, far fewer think she’ll come out the victor.
“They may not be the majority of Manitoba there is still a significant portion of people that are fans of trump and would vote for him if they could.”
Only 43 per cent think Harris will become the next U.S. president; 27 per cent say it will be Trump; and 29 per cent are unsure.
Brown also noted those who answered the survey say the outcome of the election, and potential unrest that may come, will affect their decision to travel down South.
“They are changing or going somewhere else or not taking a trip somewhere over the border just because concerns over the environment there right now,” said Brown.
Some experts believe concerns around civil unrest following the election are overblown, with all eyes on America.
“I think that after we see this election we see a number of days go by if there is nothing going on then people will be less concerned,” said University of Manitoba Political Scientist Christopher Adams. “But if there is rioting like the BLM or January 6th riots — if that’s going on — people will be less willing to go to the States.”
Adams did note however when it comes to which outcome will be smoother for Canada overall, he says Harris appears to be the better fit.
“A white house under the Democrats compared to Donald Trump is more predictable. So the Canadian government probably can work better with a Democratic government.”
Note: 800 Manitobans were surveyed from Oct. 28 to Nov. 1. They were members of Probe Research’s proprietary panel, as well as members of another national online panel. Because an online panel is a non-probability sample, no margin of error can be given. A probabilistic sample of N=800 would have a margin of error of ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
