Canada election 2025: Liberals set to form minority government

In a stunning reversal of expectations and polling from just months ago, the Liberal Party of Canada under Mark Carney is set to secure a fourth term of office with another minority government.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre won’t be returning to the House of Commons after losing their respective ridings.

Based on results released by Elections Canada as of Tuesday afternoon, CityNews is projecting the Liberals will form minority government.

As of 4 p.m. EDT, the Liberals were leading and elected in 169 seats, three seats short of a majority. It means the Liberals will have to find support from at least one other party to stay in power.

The projected win came more than five weeks after Carney triggered a national election just nine days after being sworn in as Canada’s 24th prime minister.

Throughout the campaign, the Liberals tried to frame the central ballot question as one of Canadian sovereignty and countering U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff regime.

In a victory speech to supporters early Tuesday, Carney promised to “think big” and lead a government that represents all Canadians. He said Canada’s strength relies on working together as a country.

Gains by Carney and the Liberals were at the expense of the New Democratic Party and the Bloc Québécois (BQ).

The NDP paid the bigger price of the two, with the party only leading in seven ridings as of 2:55 p.m. EDT, which is a third of the size of the caucus before the election was called. The party’s total is also five seats short of official party status.

In an emotional speech to supporters in British Columbia, Singh announced he would be stepping down as head of the NDP. He led the party through three federal election campaigns.

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Meanwhile, the BQ was down 11 ridings from the time of dissolution (sitting at 22 as of 2:55 p.m. EDT).

During the 36-day contest, the Liberals continually ran ahead of the Conservative Party of Canada in surveys released by the country’s largest polling firms. While polls released in the early days showed differences in the high single digits and low double digits, the gap narrowed in the campaign’s closing days.

However, the Conservatives under leader Pierre Poilievre continually pushed a message of affordability — sometimes attracting criticism from strategists within the party for not pivoting to fight back against Trump in a stronger way.

As of 2:55 p.m. EDT, the Conservatives were leading in 144 seats. As Poilievre conceded the election at around 1 a.m. EDT and suggested he might remain to fight on behalf of the party, he’s set to lose his Carleton (Ontario) riding seat to Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy.

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Meanwhile, in the lead up to Monday’s election there were questions surrounding the future of the Green Party of Canada. Co-leader Elizabeth May held onto her Saanich–Gulf Islands (British Columbia) seat, but co-leader Jonathan Pedneault came in last place in the Quebec riding of Outremont. Mike Morrice, the party’s only other MP for the riding of Kitchener Centre (Ontario), lost to his Conservative challenger.

No other parties or independent candidates were projected to win any ridings as of Tuesday morning

To get a majority government in Canada, a party needs to hold 172 or the 343 seats in parliament. Under a recent redistribution process, the total number of seats in the House of Commons increased slightly and many ridings saw boundaries change.

For real-time Canada election results, click here.

Carney’s political ascent reverses Liberal Party hopes in 2025 Canada election

Carney, the 60-year-old economist who previously headed the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, saw a meteoric rise in Canadian politics after the resignation of former prime minister Justin Trudeau.

Trudeau announced in early January his resignation as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada after months of declining popularity, capped off with the sudden resignation of former finance minister Chrystia Freeland.

For several months before Trudeau’s resignation announcement, polls had the Conservatives more than 20 per cent ahead of the Liberals.

The resignation of Trudeau triggered a two-month leadership race. Freeland along with Ontario MP and former government house leader Karina Gould and businessman and Quebec MP Frank Baylis.

Touting his economic background, Carney swept the leadership vote with 85.9 per cent support. Freeland, Gould and Baylis only got support in the single digits.

After being sworn in with a smaller cabinet in mid-March, Carney’s first act was to eliminate the consumer carbon tax — an issue the Conservatives slammed Trudeau and the Liberals on for months. Poilievre attempted to tie to tax to Carney, dubbing him “carbon tax Carney.”

Before going to see Governor General Mary Simon with a request to dissolve parliament, Carney flew to Europe to meet with leaders amid tensions with Trump and his administration.

At a few times during the federal election campaign, Carney convened meetings in Ottawa to respond to tariffs imposed by Trump. Carney moved ahead with retaliatory tariffs and tried to bring the mounting tensions into campaign, referring to Trump’s calls to make Canada a 51st state.

However, in recent days as things appeared to quieten down in Washington, the Conservatives appeared to pick up momentum in their campaign while Poilievre continued to make policy announcements surrounding housing, affordability and crime.

With files from CityNews’ Lucas Casaletto and The Canadian Press