What would a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris win mean for Canada?

As Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump battle for the White House, Canadians are watching closely, eager to understand how each administration’s policies may impact Canada’s economy, trade and border.

Experts say Canada could be impacted in different ways regardless of who takes office. Starting with trade, Harris would likely support relations but might also push for higher labour standards. Meanwhile, a Trump administration may bring a more transactional approach.

“Trump is talking about more tax cuts and says that he’s going to also pay down debt by raising tariffs,” said David MacNaughton, former Canadian Ambassador to the U.S. “That will simply, one way or the other, increase inflation.”

Regarding climate, Trump’s support for fossil fuels could benefit Canada’s oil sector. But a Harris victory would likely align more closely with current Canadian government climate initiatives.

“Whether it’s new regulations on vehicles or tax breaks on electric vehicles or incentives for solar power or wind power,” said Renan Levine, an American Politics professor at the University of Toronto. “Those things one might expect would be more likely under a Harris administration, especially given Trump’s opposition to wind power.”

Canada must adapt regardless of winner: political expert

Levine adds that, even if Harris does end up in the White House, she may not be able to follow through with many of her climate policies.

“If Harris is elected, it’s highly unlikely that she’s going to enjoy democratic majorities in both the Senate and the House,” said Levine.

Border policies may also shift depending on who ends up in the White House. Under a Harris administration, cross-border travel could be smoother with eased restrictions. Experts say Trump’s stricter immigration stance could bring a more rigorous process.

“With the Trump administration, there might be some issues, especially with permanent residents in Canada from other countries, not necessarily being able to easily access the U.S.,” said Levine. “But generally, the crackdown that Donald Trump promises on immigration shouldn’t even affect that much.”

Whether it’s Trump or Harris who takes office, MacNaughton says Canada must adapt to keep the partnership strong.

“It’s a very close relationship, unlike any two countries worldwide. And I think it presents some challenges for us but also some great opportunities.”

About 77 million Americans already have voted early, but Harris and Trump are pushing to turn out many millions more supporters on Tuesday. Either result on Election Day will yield a historic outcome.