NDP’s Dance celebrating victory in Elmwood-Transcona byelection

The New Democrats have declared a federal byelection victory in their Winnipeg stronghold of Elmwood—Transcona.

The NDP candidate Leila Dance told supporters in a tearful speech that even though the final results weren’t in, she expected she would see them in Ottawa.

With several polls still to be counted, Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds conceded defeat and told his volunteers that they should be proud of what the Conservatives accomplished in the campaign.

Political watchers had a keen eye on the results to see if the Tories could sway traditionally NDP voters on issues related to labour and affordability.

Dance took the lead with 13,606 votes over Conservative Colin Reynolds, who has 12,448 — voter turnout was at 39.08 per cent.

The polls closed Monday and votes were counted in two crucial federal byelections that are being closely watched by political parties. 

While byelections aren’t usually credited with much significance on Parliament Hill, the votes in Winnipeg and Montreal are being treated as bellwethers of the political shifts happening in Canada.

Winnipeg’s Elmwood — Transcona seat has been vacant since the NDP’s Daniel Blaikie left federal politics. 

The New Democrats were hoping to hold onto the riding while polls suggested the Conservatives were in the running — but the Winnipeg-area riding of Elmwood-Transcona which has stayed mostly Orange for the past four decades, will not change colours.

The Montreal seat of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun opened up when former justice minister David Lametti left politics.

Polls suggest the race is tight between the Liberal candidate and the Bloc Québécois, but the NDP is also hopeful it can win.

The stakes are particularly high for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who faced calls for his resignation last June when the Conservatives took over a Liberal stronghold seat in a Toronto byelection. 

The loss sent shock waves through the governing party, as the Liberals were faced with the stark reality of their plummeting poll numbers.

Some strategists have suggested that Jagmeet Singh’s leadership could come under similar scrutiny if the NDP fails to hold onto the Winnipeg seat.

Singh took a political gamble on signing a pact with Trudeau in 2022 to prevent an early election in exchange for progress on NDP priorities.

While that deal has yielded a national dental care program, legislation to ban replacement workers and a bill that would underpin a future pharmacare program, the results haven’t translated to gains in the polls. 

Singh pulled out of that deal just weeks ago in a bid to distance his party from the Liberals and try to make the next election a two-way race between himself and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. 

The Conservatives have made an aggressive play for the riding by appealing to traditional NDP voters on issues related to labour and affordability. 

“Jagmeet Singh and Justin Trudeau are the same person,” Poilievre said in a social media video posted Sunday ahead of Monday’s vote.

A vote for the Conservative candidate in Elmwood — Transcona is a vote to “fire Justin Trudeau and axe the tax,” he said. 

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.