If an election were held today, who would win? Data projects huge Tory victory

It has been clear for some time that the Trudeau Liberals have been struggling in the polls, but a new survey and analysis finds if an election were held today, the Grits would be headed to a stunning defeat.

Abacus Data crunched the numbers over several polls to make a seat projection. That projection shows the Liberals would lose more than half their seats and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives would be heading to a solid majority if Canadians cast their ballots right now.

“You’ve got the Conservatives winning 204 seats — that’s a 77-seat gain for them. The Liberals are in second at 69, a drop of 87 seats, with the Bloc at 43, and the New Democrats at 27,” explained Abacus Data CEO David Coletto.

He tells CityNews we haven’t seen a win like the one the data is suggesting in decades.

“If the Conservatives win 59 per cent of seats in the House of Commons, you’d probably have to go all the way back to Jean Chretien’s first’ majority government in 1993 to see a victory that large. Both Justin Trudeau in 2015 nor Stephen Harper in 2011 got that many seats in terms of proportion,” he said.

“There’s a desire for change and right now people are looking at the Conservatives and saying, ‘I think I’d go there if I had to vote today.'”

Voter fatigue

Colletto says he believes this has more to do with Liberal fatigue among voters and the political costs of inflation but notes the Conservatives have also made a good effort of connecting with Canadians’ financial pains.

Daniel Beland, the head of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada, agrees the cost of living and voter fatigue after eight years is playing a role in waning support.

“The longer you’re in power, the more people can become critical,” he said.

Beland says the polling will likely spark more talk about Justin Trudeau’s future as Liberal leader, but it may be past the point-of-no-return.

“Replacing Justin Trudeau might not be a silver bullet for the Liberals to fix their problems,” he said.

Meanwhile, the regional breakdown shows the Liberals maintaining their grip on Toronto and Montreal, but notes most of the rest of Canada would be turning blue.

Coletto notes, however, there is still time for these numbers to change. The next election isn’t scheduled until 2025, unless the NDP’s confidence deal with the Liberal Party collapses.