A COVID rulebreaker, and late MP’s son to run in Manitoba byelections
Posted May 15, 2023 3:21 pm.
Last Updated June 12, 2023 2:39 pm.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau officially announced Sunday that four byelections will take place on June 19 – two in Manitoba making headlines.
People’s Party of Canada leader Maxime Bernier announcing his candidacy for Portage-Lisgar.
Vocally opposed to COVID-19 lockdowns and health restrictions, Bernier sparked controversy in Manitoba when he was arrested for breaking public health orders during a 2021 visit to the province. Bernier will appear in court in Winnipeg this week to challenge his arrest and other COVID-related fines.
The Portage-Lisgar seat was left vacant by Former interim Conservative leader Candace Bergen who stepped down in February. Bergen’s former campaign manager Branden Leslie was nominated as the Conservative candidate.
Christopher Adams from the University of Manitoba says this could be an interesting race.
“I would say that Branden Leslie is the frontrunner in Portage-Lisgar as the past campaign director of Candace Bergen, but at the same time, Maxime Bernier has a high profile. He has worked this riding before, he was there during the last federal election, and I think he will have some good-sized rallies in the coming couple of months.”
Even though the PPC’s received 22 per cent of the vote in the Portage-Lisgar riding in 2019, political analyst Shannon Sampert says this is a new election, and the Conservative Party has new leadership.
“Pierre Poilievre has come out very strongly in being anti-vaccine mandate, anti-gun legislation, very clear that he is pro-convoy and those are all those kind of issues that Maxime Bernier had been very positive on as well. He’s not going to have as strong of a showing as he did last time,” said Sampert.
In the riding of Winnipeg South Centre, Liberal candidate Ben Carr is looking to win the seat held by his late father, long-time MP and former cabinet minister Jim Carr, who died in December.
“He will be with me, no-doubt, in the conversations that I have with people, there are lots of memories that are being shared with him by folks as I knock on their doors, return their phone calls and run into people on the street, but I feel confident that I have demonstrated myself to be an effective leader in this community for a number of years and I hope to continue that moving forward as a representative in Ottawa,” said Carr.
Adams says while these races will be interesting to watch, they won’t give much insight into the broader federal political landscape.
With the low turnout often seen in Byelections, it’s harder to gauge what these outcomes could mean going forward.
“If you end up with a turnout of, let’s say, 30 per cent, which is not untypically for a byelection, a turnout of 30 per cent means that 7 out of 10 people are not voting, so when you’re polling these households, you don’t know if you’re polling the people who will be voting,” said Adams.
